2020 Craft Beer Predictions: Another Year Of Change

Every year, I attempt to see the future and predict what may happen in the beer world over the next year. Making my list of 2020 craft beer predictions was just as difficult as past years but it still a lot of fun. The craft beer world never stops changing and few would have guessed we would be ending the decade with so much great craft beer. So let’s discuss how the start of the next decade will look.  

Quick Review Of 2019 Predictions

But first, let’s quickly review my predictions from last year. While this is fun, it is also humbling because my predictions aren’t always very accurate.  

Brut IPAs Won’t Take Off: Brut IPA being a short lived fad was an accurate prediction. At this time last year, it seemed that the Brut IPA was already starting to fade and within the first few months of 2019, this style was nearly gone.

Sweet Beers Will Become More Popular: From New England / Hazy IPAs to Pastry Stouts to Fruited Berliners, there are many options for fans of sweet beers. This trend started with small breweries but really gained mass adoption with beers like Sierra Nevada’s Hazy Little Thing and even the boom in fruit flavored hard seltzers. More on seltzers later. 

Large Craft Breweries: I predicted that large breweries would regain the attention of beer drinkers. And while this did happen, I thought it would happen through marketing, beer styles, pricing, etc. But they got the most attention from acquisitions. Sam Adams purchasing Dogfish Head, New Belgium selling to Lion Little World, Ballast Point changing hands again, etc.

Diversity: And I also acknowledged that we wouldn’t see any huge strides in diversity. Mostly because this takes a lot of time to shift a culture.  And it is obvious that there is still years of change needed before this is achieved.

So that’s enough talk about the past, this article is about the future. What are my 2020 craft beer predictions? 

2020 Craft Beer Predictions

Beer Styles 

So every year, those in the craft beer industry keep saying that lagers will finally become a prominent style in craft beer. And every year, we see slight movement but nothing to get excited about. And even with the “crispy boi” trend this past summer, these beers still aren’t catching the overall attention of craft beer drinkers.

I don’t see this being any different in 2020. Most craft beer drinkers want something other than a lager. And when they do drink lagers, there are options that are considerably less expensive than what craft breweries can produce. 

What we will see is a huge increase in low calorie options. Some of these will be lagers but I think most will be IPA. The vast majority of craft beer sales are IPA so it makes the most sense to leverage the existing popularity of this style.

To keep everyone drinking these low calories beers, they will have to taste great. Beer drinkers will not settle for a “craft” option that tastes watered down like the macro light lagers.

What About Hard Seltzers? 

Should a craft beer writer talk about hard seltzer? For the longest time, this was a topic that I avoided but since craft breweries are making them it seems fitting to include them.  

2019 saw an enormous boom from this style. I am convinced that American Light Lagers have more to fear from these than craft beer, it is still a style that is increasing in popularity and we will continue to see more of it at local breweries.

With increased demand will come increased competition and I don’t think small to midsize breweries will have the ability to compete in this category against the large producers that can drive volume and a lower price. I believe small to midsize breweries will move to produce seltzers for onsite consumption only since competing on retail shelves won’t be profitable enough. 

Breweries Selling & Consolidating

There are many times that I like to pretend that craft beer is just about the beer and the business side is nonexistent. But the reality is the beer industry is no different than any other business which means acquisitions are inevitable. 

So what about next year? I don’t think selling and consolidation is anything that will ever end. I foresee more regional breweries consolidating with others of similar size to try to combat the pressures they get from larger and smaller breweries. And it wouldn’t shock me if AB-InBev purchased another regional brewery with strong growth potential.  

The next will probably be someone that is on the bottom half of the top 50 list or a brewery poised to crack the top 50. Even one of the brewery groups like CANarchy or Artisanal Brewing Ventures might be primed for an acquisition. 

And don’t assume it will be a brand that is struggling. Instead, it is more likely to be a brand that is growing but finds itself unable to grow fast enough to service the debt they took on during expansion.  

Breweries Closing Vs Opening 

Many new breweries will open in 2020 and outpace the closings by a large number. But these numbers will continue to get closer and closer every year. And that isn’t necessarily a bad thing, just like any business, only the strong survive and new contenders will always enter into the space.  

We won’t see the “popping of the bubble” where mass amounts of breweries close. At this point, the only thing that could make that happen is a change in legislation that makes erodes the profitability of brewing.

Instead, the market will continue to correct itself and shift. Regional breweries will suffer the most as they will see pressure from both national and small operations.  

Beyond The Next Year . . . What About The Next Decade? 

As we enter 2020, it is also important that we recognize a decade is ending. The craft beer revival was just getting started in 2010 and now there are around 8,000 breweries in America.  

And while numerous new styles became popular, we continue to see IPA dominate (in one form or another) and push craft beer forward. 

What Will The “Roaring 20’s” Bring To Craft Beer?

Predicting the next decade isn’t something that I can even begin to do. But if the last decade has taught us anything, the more things change, the more they stay the same. 

So the IPA will probably still be king but will evolve into something that is almost unrecognizable to what we know of today’s IPA.  

Breweries will open and breweries will close. There will be lots of consolidation from the middle to the top. All this will happen while the smallest, most local focused breweries continue to meet the needs of the die-hard craft beer “aficionados”.

But more than anything, two things will impact craft beer: the economy and the next generation of drinkers. 

If wages grow and legislation doesn’t hurt the profitability of craft beer, then we will continue to see breweries thrive.  New taxes or regulations will damage the bottom line of breweries resulting in closures.

And we have to consider the next generation of legal drinkers. These “kids” have grown up in a craft beer world. My kids will know more about beer by the age of 21 than I knew when I was 30. It won’t be the new and trendy drink for them. Hopefully the awareness will make them more likely to choose craft over macro. However, studies show many will not drink alcohol at all.  

Regardless, there’s no denying how the past 10 years have changed craft beer forever. We’ve entered in a gold era for small craft breweries. I hope that continues long past the next 10 years. 

What are your 2020 craft beer predictions? How about the next 10 years? Shoot me a message or comment below.